Disrupted phylogeographical microsatellite and chloroplast DNA patterns indicate a vicariance rather than long‐distance dispersal origin for the disjunct distribution of the Chilean endemic Dioscorea biloba (Dioscoreaceae) around the Atacama Desert

Aim The Chilean endemic Dioscorea biloba (Dioscoreaceae) is a dioecious geophyte that shows a remarkable 600 km north–south disjunction in the peripheral arid area of the Atacama Desert. Its restricted present‐day distribution and probable Neogene origin indicate that its populations have a history linked to that of the Atacama Desert, making this an ideal model species with which to investigate the biogeography of the region. Location Chile, Atacama Desert and peripheral arid area. Methods Two hundred and seventy‐five individuals from nine populations were genotyped for seven nuclear microsatellite loci, and plastid trnL–F and trnT–L sequences were obtained for a representative subset of these. Analyses included the estimation of genetic diversity and population structure through clustering, Bayesian and analysis of molecular variance analyses, and statistical parsimony networks of chloroplast haplotypes. Isolation by distance was tested against alternative dispersal hypotheses. Results Microsatellite markers revealed moderate to high levels of genetic diversity within populations, with those from the southern Limarí Valley showing the highest values and northern populations showing less exclusive alleles. Bayesian analysis of microsatellite data identified three genetic groups that corresponded to geographical ranges. Chloroplast phylogeography revealed no haplotypes shared between northern and southern ranges, and little haplotype sharing between the two neighbouring southern valleys. Dispersal models suggested the presence of extinct hypothetical populations between the southern and northern ranges. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with prolonged isolation of the northern and southern groups, mediated by the life‐history traits of the species. Significant isolation was revealed at both large and moderate distances as gene flow was not evident even between neighbouring valleys. Bayesian analyses of microsatellite and chloroplast haplotype diversity identified the southern area of Limarí as the probable area of origin of the species. Our data do not support recent dispersal of D. biloba from the southern range into Antofagasta, but indicate the fragmentation of an earlier wider range, concomitant with the Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic oscillations, with subsequent extinctions of the Atacama Desert populations and the divergence of the peripheral ones as a consequence of genetic drift.     

Towards a theory of the evolution of butterfly colour patterns under directional and disruptive selection

Two general models for the transspecific evolution of butterfly colour patterns are advanced: directional selection acting equally on both sexes, and disruptive selection involving periods of polymorphism. To consider possible outcomes of me latter process, a morphism notation based on an integrated classification for polymorphism and sexual dimorphism is developed. This notation is used to examine the properties of all morphism transformations possible from the minimal expressions of the nine morphism categories, as reached through defined minimum step changes. The significance of such pathway models is analysed in terms of general properties of butterfly polymorphism. The potential use of pathway models in evolutionary studies is briefly discussed, mainly with respect to phylogenetics, and ideas on the evolution of genetic dominance.     

Prophylactic and curative effects of Bacopa monniera in gastric ulcer models.

Bacopa monniera Wettst. (BM, syn. Herpestis monniera L; Scrophulariaceae), is an Ayurvedic drug used as a rasayana. Its fresh juice was earlier reported to have significant antiulcerogenic activity. In continuation, methanolic extract of BM (BME) standardized to bacoside-A content (percentage-38.0 ± 0.9), when given in the dose of 10–50 mg/kg, twice daily for 5 days, showed dose-dependent anti-ulcerogenic on various gastric ulcer models induced by ethanol, aspirin, 2 h cold restraint stress and 4 h pylorus ligation. BME in the dose of 20 mg/kg, given for 10 days, twice daily showed healing effects against 50% acetic acid-induced gastric ulcers. Further work was done to investigate the possible mechanisms of its action by studying its effect on various mucosal offensive acid-pepsin secretion and defensive factors like mucin secretion, mucosal cell shedding, cell proliferation and antioxidant activity in rats. BME 20 mg/kg showed no effect on acid-pepsin secretion, increased mucin secretion, while it decreased cell shedding with no effect on cell proliferation. BME showed significant antioxidant effect per se and in stressed animals. Thus, the gastric prophylactic and curative effects of BME may be due to its predominant effect on mucosal defensive factors.     

Analysis of Multiply Matched Retrospective Studies When Risk Factor Under Study is Discrete,With Two or More Levels

The odds ratio is known to closely approximate the relative risk when the disease is rare. Logistic regression models are often used to estimate such odds ratios, but here a different model is used which avoids the assumptions implicit in logistic modelling; it also has the advantage of providing a test of homogeneity for odds rat os in situations where the logistic model cannot.     

A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.